Telenor presented Strategies and Ambitions at Capital Markets Day 2025
Telenor presented Strategies and Ambitions at Capital Markets Day
Telenor Group, one of our premium members, a leading telecommunications provider in the Nordics and Asia, recently held its triennial Capital Markets Day (CMD) 2025 this week to present its strategic priorities and financial ambitions to global investors and analysts. Strategies presented by the Group aim to boost shareholder value and strengthen market position.
An even more future-fit and simplified Telenor towards 2030
The event provided a comprehensive view of the Group’s key businesses and opportunities, including a dedicated segment on Asia led by Jon Omund Revhaug, Head of Telenor Asia. In Asia, Telenor will continue to manage its leading telco assets for long-term value, while aiming to further simplify the Group portfolio over time through well-crafted strategies.
Key strategic priorities for the 2025-2030 period:
- Growth through customer excellence and service innovation
- Accelerating technology-led transformation
- Tapering opex and capex to sales
- Driving shareholder value creation with a focus on RoCE and prudent, consistent capital allocation.
Telenor will drive shareholder value through three key focus areas, employing robust strategies to achieve their goals:
- Top-Line Growth: Leveraging world-class networks and talent to drive revenue growth through customer excellence.
- Efficiency & Transformation: Relentlessly pursuing operational improvements through simplification and transformation, including the use of technology and AI.
- Cash Flow & Reinvestment: Achieving operational cash flow growth and making targeted, but gradually decreasing, reinvestments into networks and systems to ensure continued customer and operational excellence.
- As a result of this strategy, the company expects to see expanding return on capital and free cash flows over time. Telenor’s leadership remains confident in delivering on its commitments to shareholders, bolstered by the company’s strong execution culture, based on strategic insights.
Sustainability and resilience
Financial ambitions Telenor’s updated medium-term and long-term financial ambitions, as detailed in the CMD presentation, are as follows:
- Nordics: Organic service revenue growth in the low single-digit range. Organic EBITDA growth in the low-to-mid single-digit range, supported by operating leverage enabled by stable-to-declining opex. Capex-to-sales expected to taper below 13% by 2028 and further to 11–12% by 2030. While the Group’s full Financial Outlook for 2026 will be communicated in the Q4 2025 results report, Telenor’s preliminary expectation is for an organic EBITDA growth in the Nordics in the mid-single digits for 2026.
- Group: Free cash flow before M&A (excluding associates) is expected at NOK 12–13 billion for 2028, reaching NOK 14–15 billion by 2030. This implies a mid-to-high single digit CAGR from 2025. On top of this we expect solid dividend potential from associated companies in the same period. However, dividends from associates are excluded from our stated ambitions, since they are non-controlled entities and separately listed companies. Return on Capital Employed (RoCE) for the overall Group is projected to grow from 8.6% today to above 11% by 2028 and above 12% by 2030.
- Unchanged financial policy: Telenor’s dividend policy of annually increasing dividends per share is unchanged, and the Group also maintains its target leverage ratio of 1.8x – 2.3x. The company has a strong commitment to covering dividends by free cash flow before M&A over time.
Group portfolio and capital allocation
Telenor will continue to simplify its Group portfolio and concentrate growth in the Nordics, with a medium- to long-term goal of becoming an even more Nordic-centric group. The Group will actively pursue value-accretive transactions and strategic partnerships in both the Nordics and Asia. This geographic strategy aims to drive shareholder value while maintaining a strong balance sheet through carefully planned strategies.
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